Monday November 9, 2009
Most companies don't get into financial trouble overnight - there are signs.
One of the better signs is the cash flow to debt ratio.
This ratio tells you how well a company can cover its debts from cash flow.
A low number is bad news. Here's how it works.
Follow me on Twitter
Thursday November 5, 2009
The stock market has been on a roller coaster and there's a good chance it's not getting off anytime soon.
Good news on the jobs front along with some better than expected earnings sent the market up Thursday, but that follows a down day that struggled with uncertainty.
Investors are looking for a reason to buy, but reality keeps biting them in the butt.
And that reality is true unemployment (combining the jobless numbers with workers on reduced hours or otherwise working for much less than before) is staggering.
A vast majority of business economists recently predicted it will be at least two and, quite likely more, years before the unemployment situation is resolved.
That means in the short run it is unlikely that consumer spending will return with any strength.
Without increased consumer spending, business spending will not grow enough to create the jobs we need to ease the unemployment crisis.
Remember, we not only have to replace lost jobs but must also create jobs for young people entering the work force every year.
This is why the stock market charts are likely to look more like the Swiss Alps than an airliner taking off.
Follow me on Twitter
Tuesday November 3, 2009
When Warren Buffett speaks (and, more importantly, acts) the stock market listens.
The market may not always follow his moves precisely, but you can bet many in the stock market note whether he is bullish or bearish.
He is definitely bullish these days with the acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad - a $44 billion investment.
Some pundits have labeled the move a "bet," but Buffett doesn't bet.
Every move he makes is well thought-out and, for the most part, geared toward a long-term investment.
Why is his acquisition of a railroad important?
Transportation stocks (railroads, trucking firms, but not necessarily airlines) do well when the economy is strong.
They suffer when the economy is bad and there are fewer goods to move around.
Buffett's acquisition of a railroad is testimony to his confidence in the U.S. economy. Transportation, including railroads, will see increased traffic as the economy grows.
He has become the most successful investor in history by buying where others failed to see long-term potential - in other words, Buffett is a value investor.
Too often these days, stock investors hear that long-term investing is a losing game - that market fluctuations will wipe out any gains.
Buffett reminds us again that a long-term perspective is still one road to investing success, but it is not a road investors should follow with their eyes closed.
Follow me on Twitter
Sunday November 1, 2009
Small business financing giant CIT Group Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Sunday.
While not unexpected, the bankruptcy may further shake investor confidence Monday after a tough run last week.
The markets closed down slightly for October ending a seven-month bull run.
The CIT bankruptcy is troubling because it is the largest lender to medium and small businesses.
With the holiday season coming and companies needing solid financing, the CIT trouble could spread.
Trouble has already found the taxpayer. CIT received several billion in U.S. funds last year in an effort to stay afloat.
The government took preferred stock for its investment.
However, the CIT bankruptcy, like most filings, renders stock in the company worthless. Bankruptcy treats bondholders better, but they won't get all of their money back.
Bankruptcy is never good for stockholders, however that's part of the risk of being a part owner.
Follow me on Twitter