The consensus of major weather forecasting services – public and private – is that this season will be an average in storm activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, "it is likely there will be nine to 14 named storms, with four to seven of those becoming hurricanes. Of the hurricanes, NOAA predicts that one to three will be major hurricanes -- storms classified as Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity -- with winds of 111 mph or higher."
If storms hit the Florida and/or Gulf Coasts, construction companies may find work for crews idled by the housing slump in other areas.
Building material supply companies might also do well in storm recovery areas. Financial services companies often find new customers with money to re-build looking for mortgages.
Another major industry that could suffer is oil refining and distribution. Hurricane Katrina knocked out several refineries and damaged a major oil distribution pipeline to the Midwest.
A disruption in domestic refining or distribution could have a dramatic impact on fuel prices.
Bet against Insurance
Other investors may want to bet against insurance companies, although modern underwriting techniques and re-insurance programs limit the risk of most companies.However, if the thought of profiting off your fellow citizens’ misery bothers you, consider forgetting trying to outguess the weather and stick with your long-range investment plan.
If the TV weather person can’t tell you for sure whether it will rain in two days or not, investing on long-range hurricane forecasts is more like gambling.
