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Why Holiday Shopping is Important to the Stock Market

By Ken Little, About.com

By all indications, the first few days of the holiday shopping season were a success. Although it is getting harder to find accurate data on retail sales, Black Friday seems to have been a success.

However, some retailers noticed a significant drop in traffic once the hot sales items were gone and the big discounts gave way to more normal mark-downs for the rest of the weekend.

One accounting put Friday's sales at $10.3 billion compared to $9.5 billion for the year before. This was almost twice the growth some analysts were expecting.

Two thirds of our economy hinges on consumers spending, by some accounts, so any slow down has a significant affect on the market.

Retailers surveyed by major news organizations were generally optimistic about the results of the first full weekend of holiday shopping.

Concerns

However, high gasoline and heating oil prices along with general concern about the economy may put pressure on middle and lower income shoppers to curtail their spending, which should favor discounters.

The problem for investors is that specific retail data is not easy to come by during this most important selling season. Official data on the holiday shopping season won’t be available until January.

Between then and now, investors must compile company-by-company reports – such as those released by Wal-Mart or credit card companies – for information.

The frenzy of yearend sales and closing out the books, in some cases, can lead to data that is at best fragmented.

The best advice is do not take the activity of the first few days as a sure indicator of future activity. Past holiday seasons have seen spectacular opening weekends, which lead to mediocre final days.

Conclusion

Weather, inventory, and any number of other factors can change the fate of this shopping season. Let’s hope it’s a good one – the economy could use it.

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