Many children will start the new school year this week marking the economic transition from Summer to Fall. It still may be hot and muggy where you live, but the economic beginning of Fall holds hope for a rebound in stock prices before the end of the year.
That's the optimistic view. The pessimistic view sees a rocky stock market at best with the possibility of further slippage.
The optimists tend to consider those things that change in the economy as we move into fall such as a rise in consumer spending for back-to-school clothes and supplies. Stores will be (or already have) placed orders for the holiday shopping season.
As businesses place orders for holiday shopping season, manufacturers and distributors ramp up supplies to meet the orders. This, hopefully, will lead to some jobs growth, which should help consumer spending.
On the other side of the coin, pessimists look at the numbers and there is no pre-holiday cheer to be found.
The Dow (as a proxy for the stock market) is almost a 1,000 points off the high for the year and down more than 430 points from where it started 2010.
Unemployment remains high and consumer spending stagnant (the latest jobs figures come out Friday). If people don't have jobs or are afraid of losing theirs, it is doubtful stocks will find any comfort in pushing higher.
Mid-term elections in November will alter the political balance in Congress, almost guaranteeing nothing significant will be done for the next two years.
Still, any signs of encouraging news (no matter how strained) may push the market up.
That's on my holiday wish list.
Follow me on Twitter